A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were a sign or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is a rather hard question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – however right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
